气候风险建模是以下客户研究的关键组成部分:

1. 预计未来太平洋西北部的热浪和与热有关的死亡人数将会增加

For many in the Pacific Northwest, 2021年6月底的极端气温往好里说是悲惨的，往坏里说是致命的. 在这篇分析中，我们将讨论是什么导致了这次热浪如此致命，以及我们对未来的预期.

2. 了解气候变化对心理健康的影响

Warming 温度s play a role in negatively impacting mental health with an increased risk of suicide. 气候风险分析可以做出预测，帮助解决这两个危机, 包括制定有效的心理健康干预措施.

3. 支持联合爱迪生公司的气候恢复和适应计划

Utilities increasingly face high-impact challenges from spikes in energy consumption and service disruptions. By changing how it plans and designs its energy delivery systems to be more resilient against intensifying climate events, 联合爱迪生公司在规划和应对方面采取了前瞻性的方法.

4. 关于气候变化影响的国家气候评估报告

美国正在经历气候变化对每个地区的影响, 从西部的火灾到东部与飓风有关的洪水. ICF supports the U.S. Global Change 研究 Program in producing the 5th National 气候 Assessment report identifying climate risks to humans and natural systems in the United States, now and in the future.

Best practices for achieving risk maturity

1. Tap into data-backed climate analysis.

不确定性不应成为行动的障碍. 严肃的气候行动始于数据和方法——通过严谨的分析使之栩栩如生, 状态-of-the-science approaches, and technical integrity. 气候 experts must execute hundreds of action planning projects and manage flagship resilience plans for 联邦, 状态, and local agencies, 公用事业公司, and private companies. Implementing the National 气候 Assessment, 必须采用数据支持的方法进行气候影响评估和风险分析, mitigation technologies, 适应ation analysis, and decarbonization’s economic, 股本, and health benefits.

2. Collaborate with integrated teams of experts.

技术培训和援助(TTA)首先是一种伙伴关系. 依靠 robust industry knowledge to create targeted assessments and solutions, prepare and execute climate action plans, 在地方和区域层面推动城市可持续发展, 省, 和城市. A holistic approach to understanding climate risks and actions—combined with scientific expertise—refines future climate hazards into realistic vulnerability risks and assessments, 帮助培养一条通向成熟的现实道路.

3. 在整个过程中确保涉众的参与.

Raising awareness through stakeholder outreach is essential to achieving climate goals Any successful climate action plan, however large or localized, 需要 continuous outreach 参与整个规划过程. 外联活动可以包括从研讨会到信息宣传活动的所有内容.

常见问题

How accurate is climate risk modeling?

气候风险模型是可靠和准确的. 随着最新的科学技术不断发展, modeling incorporates the millions of human and computer-assisted 天气 observation networks around the world recording data constantly—variable and fluctuating data from the air, 土地, 和海洋, such as 温度s, wind patterns, 和海洋 currents. The more data points fed into a model, including comparative historical data, the more accurate its output. 虽然预测和预测总是有一定程度的不确定性, climate models of the 21st century are 基于 建立良好的物理原理和地球系统过程.

What else can climate models measure?

气候模型模拟和可视化地球随时间的变化. 模型使我们能够检验假设，并得出关于过去和未来气候系统的结论, 从自然到人类对大气的影响, 天气, and climate events. A climate risk model’s predictions and results can help alleviate the harmful effects of climate change—like severe storms and 干旱, extreme 温度s, rising sea levels, 冰川融化——直接伤害人类和动物，摧毁我们生活的地方. 气候 risk models can also help us prioritize environmental issues 基于 scientific evidence.

气候模式分析的可操作性如何?

气候模式提供的数据应旨在提供可操作的分析. By contextualizing reliable data, 气候风险模型提供的信息可作为有效行动项目的基础. With this data, 组织可以在气候建模信息和最终用户行动的结合点上采取行动. The translation of climate information into real-life action 需要 the credibility and reliability of the data, 以及它以清晰的语言传达信息的能力, salient manner.